Timeline of the HKC WDA modelling process

Stage 1: Planning (2019)

The planning stage of the HKC WDA modelling process started with an inception workshop in June 2019 in Kasane, Botswana. The ACL team and representatives from KAZA partner states met to define the geographical and sectoral scope of analysis. The selection of the Hwange-Kazuma-Chobe WDA was followed by the identification of stakeholders to engage in the participatory process.

Stage 2a: Modelling workshop (2019)

The modelling stage was initiated with a 6-day participatory modelling workshop held in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe in November 2019. The workshop brought together a group of nearly 100 stakeholders composed of local community leaders and practitioners from the agriculture, forestry, tourism, water and wildlife management sectors, from both Botswana and Zimbabwe.

A team of seven system dynamics modellers from several universities in Africa and Europe facilitated discussions and elicited knowledge from participants to co-create causal loop diagrams for each sector in the course of the workshop.

Stage 2b: Model integration and validation (2020)

ACL validation workshop

The causal loop diagrams were converted into mathematical models and calibrated with data from local sources found in databases and the literature. Sectoral models were validated by stakeholders prior to their combination in an integrated model. This integrated simulation model was then subjected to further testing prior to a final joint review and validation by stakeholders from all sectors.

Stage 3a: Scenario analysis (2021)

The integrated system dynamics model allows the simulation of different types of scenarios supporting the design and implementation of policies aimed at improving human-wildlife coexistence in the HKC WDA. Based on input provided by stakeholders at the modelling and validation workshops, a number of possible scenarios and accompanying narratives have been developed and translated into model simulations. These include a baseline scenario and coordinated and uncoordinated policy packages.

Stage 3b: Model simulator (2021)

A user-friendly graphical simulation interface was developed to allow policymakers and other users to interact with the model, ask ‘what-if…?´ questions and test policy options under possible user-defined future scenarios. This tool can serve as a decision support platform for adaptive management.